O cambio de equilíbrio do Brasil

Abstract

The papertriesto estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy during the 1975-1998 period. It uses three alternative approaches in estimating the equilibrium exchange rate. The first is based on the theory of purchasing power parity, and the others are based on the concepts of fundamental and structural equilibrium exchange rate. The estimates show that on the occasion of the introduction of the Real stabilization program, the exchange rate was very close to its equilibrium level. They also show that the magnitude of the overvaluation ofthe domestic currency in 1998 would notjustify, atleast under the argument of competitiveness problems, the risks of a change in the country's exchange rate regime prevailing at that time.

Keywords

• equilibrium exchange rate
• exchange rate overvaluation
• Real Plan