The synergy between diurnal temperature range and calcium concentration help to predict hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

Abstract

Abstract Epidemiological studies have suggested that cold is an important contributor to acute cardiovascular events and mortality. However, little is known about the Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) impact on mortality of the patients with myocardial infarction. Calcium ions (Ca2+) play a vital role in the human body, such as cardiac electrophysiology and contraction. To investigate whether DTR on admission moderates the association between serum calcium and in-hospital mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This retrospective study enrolled consecutive adult patients with AMI at a single center in China (2003–2012). Patients were divided into four groups (Ca-Q1–4) according to serum calcium concentration quartiles. Multivariate logistic regression modeling was used to assess whether DTR moderated the association between serum calcium and in-hospital mortality. The predictive value of serum calcium was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and net reclassification improvement (NRI) analyses. The study included 3780 patients. In-hospital mortality was 4.97% (188/3780). DTR moderated the association between serum calcium and in-hospital mortality (P-interaction = 0.020). Patients with low serum calcium in the highest DTR quartile exhibited an increased risk of in-hospital mortality (odds ratio for Ca-Q4 vs. Ca-Q1, 0.03; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.01–0.20). In the highest DTR quartile, adding serum calcium concentration to the risk factor model increased the area under the ROC curve (0.81 vs. 0.76; P < 0.001) and increased NRI by 20.2% (95% CI 7.5–32.9; P = 0.001). Low serum calcium was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in patients with AMI, and this association was moderated by DTR. Careful attention should be paid to patients with low serum calcium who experience a higher DTR on admission.