Defining the analytical complexity of decision problems under uncertainty based on their pivotal properties

Abstract

Background Uncertainty poses a pervasive challenge in decision analysis and risk management. When the problem is poorly understood, probabilistic estimation exhibits high variability and bias. Analysts then utilize various strategies to find satisficing solutions, and these strategies can sometimes adequately address even highly complex problems. Previous literature proposed a hierarchy of uncertainty, but did not develop a quantitative score of analytical complexity. Methods In order to develop such a score, this study reviewed over 90 strategies to cope with uncertainty, including methods utilized by expert decision-makers such as engineers, military planners and others. Results It found that many decision problems have pivotal properties that enable their solution despite uncertainty, including small action space, reversibility and others. The analytical complexity score of a problem could then be defined based on the availability of these properties.

Keywords

• Risk management
• Decision theory
• Radical uncertainty
• Complexity
• Probabilistic risk assessment
• Heuristics