Living with water: Evolving adaptation preferences under increasing sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL, USA

Abstract

Great uncertainty exists about household responses to intensifying sea-level rise and related flooding, especially about when residents may consider relocation. Understanding how preferences for in-situ adaptation versus climate mobility evolve through time across communities with varying capacities can help identify policy solutions suited to a range of community needs. We present an analysis of 40 interviews and 597 survey responses from residents of Miami-Dade County, FL, USA—an area of substantial and increasing flood-related risk where concerns related to climate mobilities are emerging. We integrate new flood hazard models depicting chronic inundation and 1%-annual-chance flooding with street-level detail under increasing sea-level rise, which when combined with the interview and survey data reveal the multiplicities of spatiotemporal risk. Overall, we find that up to 75% of all participating respondents have experienced precipitation-based flooding in recent years, and “new normal” experiences of inundation are already reshaping current decisions to move. However, up to 57% of survey respondents preferred in-situ adaptations over moving away, highlighting a need for society-wide commitments to long-term adaptation. Socioeconomic pressures dominated climate mobility considerations among interview and survey respondents, raising climate justice concerns over socially inequitable mobility outcomes. Examinations of differential climate mobility pressures and preferences for adaptation increase understanding of the transformations reshaping coastal communities today to guide more equitable societal adaptations in the future.

Keywords

• Climate mobility
• Climate adaptation
• Decision-making
• Sea-level rise flooding impacts