A simple model to estimate the transmissibility of the Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants of SARS-COV-2 in South Africa

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic caused multiple waves of mortality in South Africa, where three genetic variants of SARS-COV-2 and their ancestral strain dominated consecutively. State-of-the-art mathematical modeling approach was used to estimate the time-varying transmissibility of SARS-COV-2 and the relative transmissibility of Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants. The transmissibility of the three variants were about 73%, 87%, and 276% higher than their preceding variants. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first simple model that can simulate multiple mortality waves and three variants' replacements in South Africa. The transmissibility of the Omicron variant is substantially higher than that of previous variants.

Keywords

• covid-19
• sars-cov-2
• beta variant
• delta variant
• omicron variant
• mathematical modelling
• south africa