A framework for climate services evaluation and its application to the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative

Abstract

Novel approaches to project evaluations are needed to document the outcomes and lessons to be learned from the numerous and diverse investments international donor organizations, national governments, and regional institutions are making in climate services. This paper describes an elaborated logic model to structure the evaluation of a climate services program, which we demonstrate in a case study of the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). Moving beyond the “loading dock” model of scientific information application, this logic model helps evaluators to address all elements of the provision of climate services – including the quality of weather and climate forecasts and agronomic advisories, the distribution of that information, the uptake of that information, and actions taken by farmers (See Fig. 1). Our logic model links the provision of information on weather, climate, and agriculture with decision making, and ultimately with improved social and economic outcomes. While such a logic model necessarily simplifies the full context of any climate services program, it also makes project evaluation much more tractable and generalizable across contexts. Furthermore, this simple logic model can serve to deconstruct conventional thinking about climate services by explicitly addressing the social and process dimensions of climate services that are sometimes neglected in project design, implementation, and evaluation. CAMI partner countries are developing climate outlook bulletins to communicate a three-month seasonal forecast. Despite these high quality seasonal forecasts, we note shortcomings regarding the dissemination of that information, its uptake by farmers, or the ability or willingness of farmers to act on that information.

Keywords

• Agriculture
• Caribbean
• Climate services
• Project evaluation
• Program evaluation
• Seasonal forecast