Problemi Ekonomiki (Jun 2018)
The Model of Decision Support to Prevent the Transmission of a Financial Crisis to the Real Economy
Abstract
The aim of the article is to form an integrated model to forecast, identify a financial crisis and minimize its spread to the real economy. The conceptual scheme reflecting the investigation of the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy is presented. It is based on the hypothesis that the development of a crisis in the financial sector of the economy precedes a crisis in the real economy, but it is possible to mitigate the consequences of the former and partially manage the crisis in the real economy by influencing the channels of its transmission at different stages of penetration. It is proved that the most appropriate for forming an integrated model of the transmission of a financial crisis is the use of simulation models, since such models allow testing the possibility of preventing the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy. Building a plan of experiments for the simulation model is based on the Graeco-Latin square methodology, which is due to the effectiveness of this tool in limiting the studied data ranges. In order to evaluate the results of the conducted experiments and choose an effective management model that will correspond to an optimal variant of crisis prevention, Harrington’s desirability function is chosen, which is based on the idea of converting the natural values of private responses into a dimensionless scale of desirability or preference. The function built is the basis for the formed approach to determining optimal and suboptimal solutions for minimizing the transmission of a financial crisis to the real economy. As a result of the study, it was determined that only 20 % of the options (25 decisions) of possible management ones can have a positive result. The formed block of decision support models is an important component of the developed integrated model, which allows modeling the process of the transmission of a financial crisis from the burst of a bubble in the financial sector to the impact on certain parts of the real economy.
