An Improved Machine-Learning Approach for COVID-19 Prediction Using Harris Hawks Optimization and Feature Analysis Using SHAP

Abstract

A healthcare monitoring system needs the support of recent technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and big data, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. This global pandemic has already taken millions of lives. Both infected and uninfected people have generated big data where AI and ML can use to combat and detect COVID-19 at an early stage. Motivated by this, an improved ML framework for the early detection of this disease is proposed in this paper. The state-of-the-art Harris hawks optimization (HHO) algorithm with an improved objective function is proposed and applied to optimize the hyperparameters of the ML algorithms, namely HHO-based eXtreme gradient boosting (HHOXGB), light gradient boosting (HHOLGB), categorical boosting (HHOCAT), random forest (HHORF) and support vector classifier (HHOSVC). An ensemble technique was applied to these optimized ML models to improve the prediction performance. Our proposed method was applied to publicly available big COVID-19 data and yielded a prediction accuracy of 92.38% using the ensemble model. In contrast, HHOXGB provided the highest accuracy of 92.23% as a single optimized model. The performance of the proposed method was compared with the traditional algorithms and other ML-based methods. In both cases, our proposed method performed better. Furthermore, not only the classification improvement, but also the features are analyzed in terms of feature importance calculated by SHapely adaptive exPlanations (SHAP) values. A graphical user interface is also discussed as a potential tool for nonspecialist users such as clinical staff and nurses. The processed data, trained model, and codes related to this study are available at GitHub.

Keywords

• big COVID-19 data
• HHO
• machine learning
• decision support system
• healthcare