Wind Simulations over Western Patagonia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and Reanalysis

Abstract

The Chilean Western Patagonia has the highest wind potential resources in South America. Its complex terrain deserves a special attention for wind modeling and assessments. In this work, we have performed a comprehensive meso-scale climate simulation on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in order to provide new insights into the wind climatology in Western Patagonia. Simulations were carried out from 1989 to 2020, and we considered a previous sensitivity analysis for their configuration. In situ data from a wind mast, meteorological information and data from eddy flux stations were used to evaluate the results. Reanalysis data from ERA-5, MERRA-2 and RECON80-17 were also used to perform a comparison of the obtained results with the WRF simulation. The results show that the WRF simulation using ERA-5 presented in this work is slightly different to a mathematical reconstruction using MERRA-2 (RECON80-17), which is widely accepted in Chile for wind resource assessments, presenting a statistical difference of about EMD = 0.8 [m s−1] and RMSE = 0.5. Non-significative differences were found between the WRF simulation and MERRA-2 reanalysis, while ERA-5 with MERRA-2 presented a remarkable statistical difference of about EMD = 1.64 [m s−1] and RMSE = 1.8. In relation to flux comparison, reanalysis and WRF in contrast with in situ observations presented a good performance during the summer season, although a spatial resolution bias was noticed. These results can be used as an input for further research related to WRF simulations in Western Patagonia to provide reliable information on wind energy exploration and extreme climatological phenomena such as heat waves.

Keywords

• WRF
• forecast
• reanalysis
• Western Patagonia
• wind climate
• Chile