A novel hybrid model for six main pollutant concentrations forecasting based on improved LSTM neural networks

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, air pollution has become a factor that cannot be ignored, affecting human lives and health. The distribution of high-density populations and high-intensity development and construction have accentuated the problem of air pollution in China. To accelerate air pollution control and effectively improve environmental air quality, the target of our research was cities with serious air pollution problems to establish a model for air pollution prediction. We used the daily monitoring data of air pollution from January 2016 to December 2020 for the respective cities. We used the long short term memory networks (LSTM) algorithm model to solve the problem of gradient explosion in recurrent neural networks, then used the particle swarm optimization algorithm to determine the parameters of the CNN-LSTM model, and finally introduced the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition of adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) decomposition to decompose air pollution and improve the accuracy of model prediction. The experimental results show that compared with a single LSTM model, the CEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM model has higher accuracy and lower prediction errors. The CEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM model enables a more precise prediction of air pollution, and may thus be useful for sustainable management and the control of air pollution.