Weakened seasonality of the African rainforest precipitation in boreal winter and spring driven by tropical SST variabilities

Abstract

Abstract Precipitation in the equatorial African rainforest plays an important role in both the regional hydrological cycle and the global climate variability. Previous studies mostly focus on the trends of drought in recent decades or long-time scales. Using two observational datasets, we reveal a remarkable weakening of the seasonal precipitation cycle over this region from 1979 to 2015, with precipitation significantly increased in the boreal winter dry season (~ 0.13 mm/day/decade) and decreased in the boreal spring wet season (~ 0.21 mm/day/decade), which account for ~ 14% (the precipitation changes from 1979 to 2015) of their respective climatological means. We further use a state-of-the-art atmospheric model to isolate the impact of sea surface temperature change from different ocean basins on the precipitation changes in the dry and wet seasons. Results show that the strengthening precipitation in the dry season is mainly driven by the Atlantic warming, whereas the weakening precipitation in the wet season can be primarily attributed to the Indian Ocean. Warming Atlantic intensifies the zonal circulation over the African rainforest, strengthening moisture convergence and intensifying precipitation in the boreal winter dry season. Warming Indian Ocean contributes more to reducing the zonal circulation and suppressing the convection in the boreal spring wet season, leading to an opposite effect on precipitation. This result has important implication on local ecology as well as global climate system.

Keywords

• Seasonality of precipitation
• African rainforest
• Walker circulation
• Convergence of moisture