Validation of the coupled physical–biogeochemical ocean model NEMO–SCOBI for the North Sea–Baltic Sea system

Abstract

The North Sea and the Baltic Sea still experience eutrophication and deoxygenation despite large international efforts to mitigate such environmental problems. Due to the highly different oceanographic frameworks of the two seas, existing modelling efforts have mainly focused on only one of the respective seas, making it difficult to study interbasin exchange of mass and energy. Here, we present NEMO–SCOBI, an ocean model (NEMO-Nordic) coupled to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI), that covers the North Sea, the Skagerrak–Kattegat transition zone and the Baltic Sea. We address its validity to further investigate biogeochemical changes in the North Sea–Baltic Sea system. The model reproduces the long-term temporal trends, the temporal variability, the yearly averages and the general spatial distribution of all of the assessed biogeochemical parameters. It is particularly suitable for use in future multi-stressor studies, such as the evaluation of combined climate and nutrient forcing scenarios. In particular, the model performance is best for oxygen and phosphate concentrations. However, there are important differences between model results and observations with respect to chlorophyll a and nitrate in coastal areas of the southeastern North Sea, the Skagerrak–Kattegat transition zone, the Gulf of Riga, the Gulf of Finland and the Gulf of Bothnia. These are partially linked to different local processes and biogeochemical forcing that lead to a general overestimation of nitrate. Our model results are validated for individual areas that are in agreement with policy management assessment areas, thereby providing added value with respect to better contributing to international programmes aiming to reduce eutrophication in the North Sea–Baltic Sea system.