Applications of Probabilistic Forecasting in Demand Response

Abstract

Studies on probabilistic demand forecasting remain relatively limited compared with point forecasting, despite it being especially valuable for operational and planning purposes. This paper demonstrates different applications of probabilistic forecasting in demand response, together with Physical-Based Load Models. The first application shows how to determine the percentage of uncertainty potentially covered by demand response throughout a day, whereas the second application deals with obtaining the number of consumers that would be needed in demand response actions for a desired percentage of coverage. Finally, in the third application, a specific hourly strategy is proposed for demand response policies. These applications facilitate the aggregator’s energy purchasing in the market and the planning of subsequent consumption adjustments through demand response to minimize deviations from the purchased energy. The approach is illustrated using hourly demand data from a small Spanish city, and two machine learning methods were used to produce a set of probabilistic forecasts and compare results: Linear Quantile Regression and a Quantile Regression Forest. Main results show a significant reduction in deviations from the purchased energy after applying the proposed strategy, especially in the case of the forecasting method being less accurate (40.95% and 33.62% of reduction, respectively).

Keywords

• short-term load forecasting
• probabilistic forecasting
• linear quantile regression
• quantile regression forest
• demand response