Forecasting medium-term natural gas demand for the European Union

Abstract

The European Commission proposed to increase the greenhouse gas emission reduction target to at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 level. The aim of this article is to visualise the EU natural gas consumption trend until 2023 regarding to energy transformation. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method) is used in this study. The analysis is based on historical volumes of natural gas consumed in 2016–2020 in 28 European Union countries. An effort can be made to state that the next coming months will have a slight increase in natural gas consumption, however, the growth will depend on the pace of the economies and the pace of the energy transition.

Keywords

• European Union
• EU
• European Green Deal
• forecasting
• natural gas
• coronavirus