The use of artificial intelligence models to predict survival in patients with laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Abstract Most recent survival prediction has been based on TNM staging, which does not provide individualized information. However, clinical factors including performance status, age, sex, and smoking might influence survival. Therefore, we used artificial intelligence (AI) to analyze various clinical factors to precisely predict the survival of patients with larynx squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC). We included patients with LSCC (N = 1026) who received definitive treatment from 2002 to 2020. Age, sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, location of tumor, TNM stage, and treatment methods were analyzed using deep neural network (DNN) with multi-classification and regression, random survival forest (RSF), and Cox proportional hazards (COX-PH) model for prediction of overall survival. Each model was confirmed with five-fold cross validation, and performance was evaluated using linear slope, y-intercept, and C-index. The DNN with multi-classification model demonstrated the highest prediction power (1.000 ± 0.047, 0.126 ± 0.762, and 0.859 ± 0.018 for slope, y-intercept, and C-index, respectively), and the prediction survival curve showed the strongest agreement with the validation survival curve, followed by DNN with regression (0.731 ± 0.048, 9.659 ± 0.964, and 0.893 ± 0.017, respectively). The DNN model produced with only T/N staging showed the poorest survival prediction. When predicting the survival of LSCC patients, various clinical factors should be considered. In the present study, DNN with multi-class was shown to be an appropriate method for survival prediction. AI analysis may predict survival more accurately and improve oncologic outcomes.