Predicted Climate Change Impacts on Distribution and Habitat Structure of Forest Ungulates in Southwest China

Abstract

Climate change will impact the distribution of species and their preferred habitat, thereby influencing the ecological processes intrinsic to these species. To investigate these phenomena, we analyzed the habitat distribution, structure, and connectivity of 6 forest ungulate species in Southwest China under current and future climate scenarios. Habitat projections indicate that forest ungulates will migrate to the southwest at higher elevations and the northwest at higher latitudes and elevations in the study area under climate change. The extent to which climate change affects the 6 forest ungulates is quite different. By 2050, there will still be a certain range of habitats for migration in the study area, but the habitat quality of species will have decreased to varying degrees after migration. By 2070, most forest ungulates will begin to experience significant habitat loss and habitat quality decline. The migration of species habitat also leads to a change in species habitat structure. Habitat landscape quality declines for most forest ungulate species. The loss of patches at the junction habitat has a huge impact on species habitat connectivity. The number and distance of corridors between the marginal habitat patches and the core habitat patches increase to a certain extent. To better achieve biodiversity conservation, we should strengthen the restoration and connectivity management of fragmented habitats to protect and restore the current habitats of species. Examples include the management of specific key areas and the establishment of large-scale integrated protected areas such as the Giant Panda National Park.