Forecasting the level of aquifers in the Ajab Shir Plain with regard to different management scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Introduction: Nowadays, comprehensive and integrated water management, especially in areas facing relative limitations of water resources, is accepted as an unavoidable necessity and the main pioneer of this management is modeling the water resources system. Methods: In this study, using the WEAP model, fluctuations in the flow level of the Zarrineh River aquifers in the Ajabshir catchment area, which is located in the southeast of Lake Urmia for a period of 15 years (1995 to 2009 AD) were calibrated and performed. Also, scenarios were considered according to the plans under study and implementation, which are the artificial feeding plan of Ajabshir plain and the plan of transferring water from Zarrineh river to Ajabshir plain (called Shahid Kazemi plan). Also, in developing some scenarios, consumption management measures (implementation of pressurized irrigation system in all agricultural lands of the plain, although it may not be completely practical) have been considered and in all scenarios, the plain is assumed to remain forbidden. This means that in the scenarios, no overdraft of groundwater has been applied. Also, in all scenarios, drought conditions are considered in the simulation period. Findings: The results indicate that the groundwater balance of Ajabshir plain is very negative and if exploited with the current trend, Ajabshir plain will lose its groundwater storage in a 30-year period. Different scenarios were investigated and the results showed that in order to balance the groundwater resources of Ajabshir plain, reduction of harvest through consumption management programs and reduction of pressure on groundwater resources of the plain through water transfer from Zarrineh river (called Shahid Kazemi dam project) Is required.

Keywords

• ajabshir plain
• weap
• groundwater resource
• plain balance