FACTORS AND DIRECTIONS OF CHANGES ON THE GRAIN MARKET IN POLAND DURING THE WAR IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The study addresses the problem of identifying the impact of the conflict in Ukraine on the situation on the grain market in Poland. The analysis covered price changes, the volume and structure of exports and imports. The effects of the crisis in the field of trade policy were assessed. The source of materials for the analyzes was the literature on the subject and empirical research conducted by various institutions dealing in trade in agricultural products. The information used in the work came from the European Agricultural Products Exchange (MATIF), the World Bank, market reports of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development and the European Commission. The most up-to-date reports from the United Nations, Reuters and European institutions were also used. It was found that the situation on the cereal market is extremely dynamic. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has caused many problems on EU agricultural markets, including grain markets. There was a significant increase in the prices of wheat and corn. There were no significant changes in foreign trade directions. In the structure of Polish grain exports and imports, corn and wheat are still the most important, and in 2022, the dominant place for wheat and corn purchases was Ukraine. However, the dominant direction of grain exports was Germany.

Keywords

• grain market
• Russia-Ukraine War
• transport routes
• exports
• imports
• supply and demand shocks