Towards adaptive resilience for the future of integrated water systems planning

Abstract

The integrated water systems (IWSs) concept involves managing water quantity and quality through dynamic interactions. This paper reviews the terrestrial water cycle, focusing on resilience and adaptive planning (AP) approaches within IWSs. We examine how integrating these approaches can improve IWS management and planning, addressing their inherent complexities. Using a performance-based resilience definition, we consider the system’s ability to absorb, recover from and adapt to adverse events. The AP focuses on flexible management pathways for uncertain future conditions. Although both resilience and AP aim to enhance water system performance and address uncertainties, they differ in their assessment and implementation approaches. We propose an Adaptive Resilience Planning (ARP) framework that merges both approaches. The ARP uses resilience metrics for performance assessment and incorporates AP’s methods for conceptualising uncertainties and optimising management portfolios. Implementing the ARP framework raises four research questions: (1) holistic characterisation of uncertainties and options in IWSs, (2) using resilience metrics for IWS adaptation, (3) balancing trade-offs among management goals through optimal portfolio selection and (4) monitoring portfolio performance and uncertainties for informed adaptation. The ARP framework offers a structured method for dynamic and adaptive resilience planning, enhancing IWS management’s responsiveness to evolving challenges.

Keywords

• Water management
• Integrated water systems
• Water systems resilience
• Water management options
• Deep uncertainty
• Adaptive resilience framework