Brief communication: From modelling to reality – flood modelling gaps highlighted by a recent severe storm surge event along the German Baltic Sea coast

Abstract

In October 2023, the Baltic Sea coasts of Germany and Denmark experienced a severe storm surge, predominantly impacting the German state of Schleswig-Holstein and parts of southern Denmark. The surge led to extensive flooding in cities like Flensburg and Schleswig, causing the breaching of at least six (regional) dikes and causing over EUR 200 million in damages in Schleswig-Holstein. By chance, the peak water levels of this storm surge aligned well with those of recent hydrodynamic flood modelling studies of the region. This rare coincidence offers crucial insights for our understanding of flooding impacts, flood management, and modelling. By comparing those studies to the real-world example using extensive media reports, we aim to extract key insights and identify gaps to be tackled in order to improve flood risk modelling in the Baltic Sea region and beyond.