Statistical Analysis of the Potential of Landslides Induced by Combination between Rainfall and Earthquakes

Abstract

This study analyzed the potential of landslides induced by the interaction between rainfall and earthquakes. Dapu Township and Alishan Township in Chiayi County, southern Taiwan, were included as study areas. From satellite images and the literature, we collected data for multiple years and time series and then used the random forest data mining algorithm for satellite image interpretation. A hazard index for the interaction between earthquakes and rainfall (IHERI) was proposed, and an index for the degree of land disturbance (IDLD) was estimated to explore the characteristics of IHERI under specific natural environmental and slope land use conditions. The results revealed that among the investigated disaster-causing factors, the degree of slope land use disturbance, the slope of the natural environment, and rainfall exerted the strongest effect on landslide occurrence. When IHERI or IDLD was higher, the probability of a landslide also increased, and under conditions of a similar IDLD, the probability of landslides increased as the IHERI value increased, and vice versa. Thus, given the interaction between rainfall and earthquakes in the study area, the effect of the degree of slope land use disturbance on landslides should not be ignored. The results of a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis indicated that the areas under the ROC curve for landslides induced by different trigger factors were all above 0.94. The results indicate that the area in which medium–high-level landslides are induced by an interaction between rainfall and earthquakes is large.

Keywords

• rainfall
• earthquake
• satellite image interpretation
• landslide potential
• random forest
• geographic information system