The Lancet Regional Health. Europe (Sep 2021)
A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation
- Emil Nafis Iftekhar,
- Viola Priesemann,
- Rudi Balling,
- Simon Bauer,
- Philippe Beutels,
- André Calero Valdez,
- Sarah Cuschieri,
- Thomas Czypionka,
- Uga Dumpis,
- Enrico Glaab,
- Eva Grill,
- Claudia Hanson,
- Pirta Hotulainen,
- Peter Klimek,
- Mirjam Kretzschmar,
- Tyll Krüger,
- Jenny Krutzinna,
- Nicola Low,
- Helena Machado,
- Carlos Martins,
- Martin McKee,
- Sebastian Bernd Mohr,
- Armin Nassehi,
- Matjaž Perc,
- Elena Petelos,
- Martyn Pickersgill,
- Barbara Prainsack,
- Joacim Rocklöv,
- Eva Schernhammer,
- Anthony Staines,
- Ewa Szczurek,
- Sotirios Tsiodras,
- Steven Van Gucht,
- Peter Willeit
Affiliations
- Emil Nafis Iftekhar
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
- Viola Priesemann
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany; Corresponding author.
- Rudi Balling
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
- Simon Bauer
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
- Philippe Beutels
- University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium
- André Calero Valdez
- RWTH Aachen University, Aachen, Germany
- Sarah Cuschieri
- University of Malta, Msida, Malta
- Thomas Czypionka
- Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria, and London School of Economics, London, UK
- Uga Dumpis
- Pauls Stradins Clinical University Hospital, University of Latvia, Riga, Latvia
- Enrico Glaab
- University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg
- Eva Grill
- Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany
- Claudia Hanson
- Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden, and London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Pirta Hotulainen
- Minerva Foundation Institute for Medical Research, Helsinki, Finland
- Peter Klimek
- Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria, and Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Mirjam Kretzschmar
- University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands
- Tyll Krüger
- Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Wroclaw, Poland
- Jenny Krutzinna
- University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
- Nicola Low
- University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Helena Machado
- Institute for Social Sciences, University of Minho, Braga, Portugal
- Carlos Martins
- Department of Community Medicine, Health Information and Decision Sciences of the Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
- Martin McKee
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Sebastian Bernd Mohr
- Max Planck Institute for Dynamics and Self-Organization, Göttingen, Germany
- Armin Nassehi
- Ludwig-Maximilians-University München, München, Germany
- Matjaž Perc
- University of Maribor, Maribor, Slovenia, and Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
- Elena Petelos
- University of Crete, Crete, Greece, and Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands
- Martyn Pickersgill
- University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
- Barbara Prainsack
- Department of Political Science, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Joacim Rocklöv
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Section of Sustainable Health, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden
- Eva Schernhammer
- Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
- Anthony Staines
- Dublin City University, Dublin, Ireland
- Ewa Szczurek
- University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland
- Sotirios Tsiodras
- National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Steven Van Gucht
- Sciensano, Brussels, Belgium
- Peter Willeit
- Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria, and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 8
p. 100185
Abstract
How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.
