Coastal Vulnerability Assessment of Thrace Peninsula: Implications for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

Abstract

This study evaluates the susceptibility of the coastal regions on the Thrace Peninsula to sea-level rise (SLR) and the corresponding vulnerability to climate change. To achieve this, a high-resolution digital elevation model with a 5 m granularity was used to apply the Coastal Vulnerability Index, adjusted for region-specific coastal sensitivity factors. Various global mean sea-level rise scenarios were examined for the near-term (2020–2050), mid-term (2050–2100), and long-term (2100–2300) to assess the impact of SLR. The examination of the immediate consequences of SLR on coastal areas included the analysis of land cover characteristics in the near-term. Results indicate that the Thrace Peninsula is highly susceptible to natural and socio-economic hazards caused by SLR. The concentration of population and socio-economic activities in coastal regions is a primary contributing factor to this vulnerability. In addition, hydrodynamic models are used to enhance understanding of the effects of SLR. The study reveals limited preparedness for planned adaptations to SLR in the region. The data highlight the crucial necessity for policymakers, researchers, and stakeholders to collaborate in executing strategic interventions and proactive initiatives. Upholding the ecological, economic, and societal welfare of the Thrace Peninsula, as well as comparable areas, necessitates addressing both the vulnerability and resilience of immediate coastal regions.

Keywords

• sea level rise
• coastal vulnerability index
• global climate change
• land change science
• land use and land cover change