A Reliability Approach to Development of Rollover Prediction for Heavy Vehicles Based on SVM Empirical Model With Multiple Observed Variables

Abstract

The rapid development of cooperative vehicle-infrastructure system (CVIS) improves the communication reliability between vehicles and road environment. These communications enable the accurate vehicle rollover prediction in Human-Vehicle-Road interaction. However, considering the strong non-linear characteristics of Human-Vehicle-Road interaction and the uncertainty of modeling, the traditional deterministic method cannot meet the requirement of accurate prediction of rollover hazard for heavy vehicles. In order to improve the accuracy of vehicles rollover prediction, this paper proposes a developed rollover prediction algorithm based on the multiple observed variables by combining the failure probability in reliability and the empirical model. This approach applies the probability method of uncertainty to the design of dynamic rollover prediction algorithm for heavy vehicles and establishes a classification model of heavy vehicles based on support vector machine (SVM) with multiple observed variables. The failure probability of rollover limit state of heavy vehicles is calculated by Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS), Radial-Based Importance Sampling (RBIS), and Truncated Importance Sampling (TIS), respectively. Then the Fishhook, Double Lane Change tests, and J-turn tests, simulated in TruckSim, are carried out to validate the proposed algorithm. The simulation results show that the rollover prediction algorithm based on failure probability can effectively improve the rollover prediction accuracy for heavy vehicles. Moreover, based on the communication in CVIS, the failure probability can be obtained before entering the specific road. Meanwhile, this approach can reduce the external interference of strong non-linear characteristics of Human-Vehicle-Road interaction and the uncertainty of the modeling to the system, thus improving the prediction accuracy of active safety performance of heavy vehicles significantly.

Keywords

• Failure probability
• heavy vehicles
• load transfer ratio
• rollover risk prediction
• SVM classification model