Quantifying impact of climatic and anthropogenic factors on runoff in the source region of Alpine River in northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Study region: The Datong River source region in the Northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau Study focus: Climate change and anthropogenic factors are the most important factors influencing runoff. Land use/land cover (LULC) is an important anthropogenic factor that has a significant impact on runoff changes. Quantifying runoff variation characteristics and determining the effect of changes in climate and LULC on runoff is important for water resource management and application. The mathematical statistics analysis and soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) were combined to perform a comprehensive analysis of runoff based on meteorological and hydrological data from the Datong River source area, and the effect of changes in climate and LULC on runoff was quantitatively calculated. New hydrological insights for the region: The results indicate that under the warm and humid climate, there was a slight change in the inter-annual runoff, while the distribution of runoff within the year was uneven due to the control of climate factors. Climate exhibited a positive driving effect on runoff, while LULC reduced the runoff and contributed 125% and − 25%, respectively, to the change in the runoff. Rainfall is the most important climatic factor influencing runoff change. It is recommended that the flood tragedy induced by short periods of high rainfall be taken into account during the process of water resource management in the basin.

Keywords

• Climate change
• LULC
• SWAT model
• Datong River source area