暴雨灾害 (Aug 2024)
Typing and disaster loss evaluation of freezing events based on the comprehensive intensity index of low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing in Hubei Province
Abstract
Low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing is a complex climate event. Although extreme low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events occur infrequently, they often cause serious impacts. Researching evolutionary characteristics of low temperature, rainfall/ snowfall and freezing events is of great significance for effective defense and mitigation of disaster impacts. By using daily meteorological observation data from 1981 to 2024 in Hubei and selecting indicators from three aspects: low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing, a comprehensive evaluation model for large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events was established. According to the types of disaster-causing factors and the disaster characteristics of the affected bodies, these events were classified and ranked. Combined with the historical disaster data, the disaster characteristics of large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei since 1981 were then analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) There have been a total of 64 large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei in the past 44 years, with an average of 1.5 occurrences per year. January has the highest frequency of occurrence, accounting for about 42%, followed by February, accounting for about 34%. (2) The large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei are classified into six types, with rain and snow type accounting for 40%, low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing type accounting for 31%, and low temperature, rain, and snow type accounting for 16%, other types accounting for a total of 13%. The strongest 10 events all belong to low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing type. (3) The direct economic losses caused by low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing disasters in Hubei have shown an overall increasing trend, but the proportion of direct economic losses to GDP has shown a certain decreasing trend, with a relatively small proportion since 2012. (4) The correlation between the comprehensive intensity index and direct economic losses of large-scale sustained low temperature, rainfall/snowfall and freezing events in Hubei follows a power curve distribution. When the comprehensive intensity index of the event exceeds 1.85, the direct economic losses increase rapidly.
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