UNCERTANITIES AND RISK IN GEOLOGICAL ACTIVITIES AND NEW WAYS OF THEIR HANDLING

Abstract

The authors rewiev the main types of uncertainties occuring in connection with geological investigations. The general concept of handling these uncertainties are outlined. The particular features of scalar, spatial and spatial-temporal evaluations are presented. Limitations of the traditional mathematical approach – deterministic and probabilistic – applied to geological investigations are discused. In the second part of the paper nem mathematical methods are presented that are more suitable to handle uncertaintes that the traditional ones.The fuzzy set theory seems to be one of the most efficient for geological purposes, among these methods. The problems of uncertainty in risk analysis are shortly discussed. Finally, results of test calculations performed by fuzzy arithmetic are presented.

Keywords

• uncertanity
• errors
• geostatistics
• fuzzy sets
• risk analysis