About the “predecessors” of the 2023 February earthquakes, Turkey

Abstract

In the frame of a comprehensive investigation of historical earthquakes of Anatolia, we propose a re-appraisal of four major earthquakes/sequences occurred after 1000 AD (1114/1115, 1269, 1513/1514 and 1544), which could be considered as predecessors of the earthquakes of February 6, 2023. The main purpose is to provide reliable parameter values for the investigated earthquakes. Our investigation consisted of: retrieving and analysing the main primary historical sources; identifying the localities mentioned and assessing macroseismic intensity; determining earthquake parameters (location, magnitude and – where possible – the source azimuth) with the repeatable and transparent “Boxer” method, after properly calibrating the relevant coefficient by considering recent earthquakes of the Anatolian region. Our investigations show that the 1114 earthquake can be considered as a predecessor of the main 2023 earthquake, although the latter ruptured a larger area; the earthquake of 1544 may be a predecessor of the second event of 2023, February; and that the background of the 1513/1514 earthquake is so poor that a lot of care is required while handling the currently available parameters. In conclusion, we also compare our results with the findings of paleoseismological investigation and discuss how they contribute to understanding the rupture history of the East Anatolian Fault.