Seasonal Long Memory in Retail Sales in the G7 Countries

Abstract

This article examines the seasonal patterns of retail sales in the G7 nations, a key component of private consumption. Using seasonal fractional integration, we assess whether shocks present a lasting or temporary effect on retail sales trends, considering the high seasonal component. We observe mean reversion in France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the UK, and permanent effects in the cases of Canada and USA. However, these outcomes vary based on the error term model applied. These results offer valuable information for policymakers seeking to boost consumption depending on the seasonal long memory property of the G7 countries.

Keywords

• retail sales
• seasonality
• G7 countries
• long memory
• fractional integration