Inferring potential landslide damming using slope stability, geomorphic constraints, and run-out analysis: a case study from the NW Himalaya

Abstract

Prediction of potential landslide damming has been a difficult process owing to the uncertainties related to landslide volume, resultant dam volume, entrainment, valley configuration, river discharge, material composition, friction, and turbulence associated with material. In this study, instability patterns of landslides, geomorphic indices, post-failure run-out predictions, and spatio-temporal patterns of rainfall and earthquakes are explored to predict the potential landslide damming sites. The Satluj valley, NW Himalaya, is chosen as a case study area. The study area has witnessed landslide damming in the past and incurred losses of USD ∼30 million and 350 lives in the last 4 decades due to such processes. A total of 44 active landslides that cover a total ∼4.81±0.05×106 m2 area and ∼34.1±9.2×106 m3 volume are evaluated to identify those landslides that may result in potential landslide damming. Out of these 44, a total of 5 landslides covering a total volume of ∼26.3±6.7×106 m3 are noted to form the potential landslide dams. Spatio-temporal variations in the pattern of rainfall in recent years enhanced the possibility of landslide triggering and hence of potential damming. These five landslides also revealed 24.8±2.7 to 39.8±4.0 m high debris flows in the run-out predictions.