A comparative study of SIR Model, Linear Regression, Logistic Function and ARIMA Model for forecasting COVID-19 cases

Abstract

Starting February 2020, COVID-19 was confirmed in 11,946 people worldwide, with a mortality rate of almost 2%. A significant number of epidemic diseases consisting of human Coronavirus display patterns. In this study, with the benefit of data analytic, we develop regression models and a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the contagion to compare the performance of models to predict the number of cases. First, we implement a good understanding of data and perform Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA). Then, we derive parameters of the model from the available data corresponding to the top 4 regions based on the history of infections and the most infected people as of the end of August 2020. Then models are compared, and we recommend further research.

Keywords

• covid-19
• epidemiology
• sir
• linear regression
• logistic function
• arima