Ziyuan Kexue (Apr 2024)
Resource and environmental impacts of carbon emission reduction in China’s iron and steel sector under the carbon neutrality goal
Abstract
[Objective] The iron and steel industry is the largest carbon emitter in the field of energy end-consumption and its carbon emission reduction is closely related to regional economic and social development, thus identifying the resource and environmental impacts of its carbon emission reduction measures and revealing the regional disparities is the key to realizing the high-quality green and low-carbon transformation of this industry in China. [Methods] This study developed a factory-level comprehensive evaluation model of China’s iron and steel industry that reflects the resource, environmental, and economic linkages based on a bottom-up Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse model. This model predicts crude steel demand under different socioeconomic development paths by 2060, and focuses on identifying the resource and environmental impacts of production structural adjustment, permeation of abatement technologies, carbon policies, and carbon neutral technology measures, revealing the regional disparities and spatial pattern of typical environmental emissions. [Results] (1) With the increase of recyclable scrap stock, the share of crude steel production of short-process will increase from 10.6% (2020) to 70% (2060); (2) With the synergistic effect of various emission reduction measures, the total energy consumption of China’s iron and steel industry will decrease by 70%-76% and fuel consumption will be reduced by 92% in 2060, compared with 2020 (with the share of coal decreasing to 0 and biomass increasing by 69%, and the consumption of coke, which has the property of a reducing agent, will fall by 90%), and carbon dioxide emissions will decrease by 89%-91%; but the increase in methane, organic carbon, and mercury emissions needs to be a cause for concern; (3) Under the synergistic effect of multiple emission reduction measures, there are obvious differences in carbon emission reduction at the provincial level in the iron and steel industry under different crude steel demand paths, and there is a larger number of provinces that show an increasing trend of mercury emissions under the scenario of high crude steel demand; [Conclusion] Therefore, carbon emission reduction in China’s iron and steel industry should be strengthened by systematic planning to prevent the “canceling out” effects among environmental emission factors generated by emission reduction measures, and the high-quality green and low-carbon transformation of China’s iron and steel industry should take into full consideration of regional economic and social disparities as well as resource endowment and carrying capacity.
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