Identification of Shortcomings in Simulating the Subseasonal Reversal of the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia Pattern

Abstract

Abstract Subseasonal reversal of warm Arctic–cold Eurasia (SR‐WACE) pattern has significant impacts on transitions of weather and climate extremes in Eurasia. This study explored the performances of climate models to simulate the main features of SR‐WACE. For real‐time predictions, most of the state‐of‐the‐art climate models showed limited ability to accurately forecast SR‐WACE in advance. Furthermore, most of the historical simulations from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) had also difficulties in well simulating the SR‐WACE. Further exploration showed that the simultaneous reversal of the Ural blocking high (UB) and Siberian high (SH) is the key atmospheric driver of the SR‐WACE occurrences, which were verified by both of the real‐time predictions and historical simulations. Our results implied that the simulation of SR‐WACE was a huge challenge and the critical solutions included improving simulation of subseasonal reversals of UB and SH in the atmosphere.

Keywords

• warm Arctic‐cold Eurasia
• subseasonal reversal
• real‐time predictions
• Ural blocking high
• Siberian high
• CMIP6