Polynomial Regression Model Utilization to Determine Potential Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF) Calories in Indonesia

Abstract

Waste-to-energy (WTE) is one of the Indonesian government’s programs aiming to meet the target of achieving a new and renewable energy (NRE) mix, as well as one of the solutions proposed to overcome the problem of waste. One of the products of WTE is energy derived from raw material waste (refuse-derived fuel/RDF). Using the formula y = 0.00003 x5 − 0.0069 x4 + 0.6298 x3 − 24.3245 x2 + 432.8401 x + 55.7448 with R2 = 0.9963, which was obtained by comparing a scatter plot diagram from the RDF calorie test dataset produced through a bio-drying process, the potential RDF calories produced using the waste composition dataset taken from each region in Indonesia can be calculated. The results of the calculations using the determined equations produce a list of provinces with RDF calorie potential, ordered from the largest to the smallest, using which the government can determine which areas are the main priority for processing waste into energy. Thus, through this method, the target of 5.1% renewable energy sourced from waste can be achieved by 2025.

Keywords

• polynomial regression
• prediction model
• renewable energy
• refuse-derived fuel
• waste to energy