The fate of endemic birds of eastern Brazilian mountaintops in the face of climate change

Abstract

Climate change affects biodiversity in various ways but not linearly. Mountaintop species and ecosystems are expected to experience the strongest impacts of climate change. Lower tolerances to changes in habitat and decreased available surface area with increasing elevation should lead to smaller ranges and even extinctions of endemic species living on mountaintops. Thus, the potential impacts of climate change must be understood in order to achieve sound and long-lasting conservation and management of mountaintops. We evaluated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution and conservation status of ten endemic bird species of eastern Brazil mountaintops based on ecological niche models. The models predicted a gradual reduction of suitable area for all species with a projected contraction of up to 94%, upwards shifts from 1039 to 1470 m in elevation, and range shifts from 7 to 373 km for 2070. Five groups of mountainous regions are highlighted as crucial for the current conservation of endemic birds. If these projections materialize, nine species of birds should be recognized as being under some level of threat. To diminish these effects, public policies and land conversion at local and regional scales and global reduction of greenhouse gas emissions are urgently needed.

Keywords

• Climate change
• Ecological niche models
• Espinhaço Range
• High altitude grasslands
• Rupestrian grasslands
• Tropical mountains