Appraisal of mixed-use developments through multiple criteria decision making: insights from Shanghai’s megacity context

Abstract

AbstractThis paper investigates the selection criteria and success factors of retailers within mixed-use developments in Shanghai, from the 2009 financial crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic. By using Multiple Criteria Decision Making focused on three groups of key performance indicators: External, specifics of the Industry, and Users, the study aims to provide a comprehensive review of retail location selection within the emerging paradigm of mixed-use environments. The assessment reveals that connectivity, specifically with metro stations within 500 m, is paramount to a project’s success. Moreover, 73% of the projects surveyed feature more than two underground levels, with the top 10 ranking projects boasting 3–4 floors above ground, occupied by both offices and retail spaces. Structurally, almost 90% of the mixed-use developments being studied have commercial areas exceeding 35,000 sqm. The optimal project size is determined to be around 200,000 sqm, with retail making up half of the built area. The preferred land plot size ranges from 35,000 to 40,000 sqm. However, the study also identifies a lack of comprehensive sustainability strategies and net-zero carbon certifications in many of these developments. The findings also contribute to urban researchers and policymakers by offering a multi-criteria matrix to assess and scale mixed-use developments, not only in Shanghai but also in other geographical locations. This foundational study serves as a basis for future MCDM research and provides a comprehensive understanding of the real estate market in Shanghai’s mixed-use developments, offering practical recommendations for enhancing their performance and sustainability.

Keywords

• Retail performance
• multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM)
• mixed-use developments
• KPIs
• performance appraisal
• sustainability