The Impacts of Global Warming on Climate Zone Changes Over Asia Based on CMIP6 Projections

Abstract

Abstract It is challenging to estimate how the regional climate will be shifted under future global warming. To reduce the potential risk of regional climate shift under future climates, examining the change in climate features over Asia is important, as approximately 60% of the world's population resides there. In this study, climate shifts are assessed over the Asian monsoon region under global mean temperature warming targets from 1.5°C to 5.0°C above preindustrial (PI) levels based on different shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Global warming impacts the individual climate variables, and consequently, it impacts the regional climate features across the Asian region. Temperature change patterns are more dominant contributors to the spatial extent and magnitude of climate shifts than precipitation change patterns. Changes in regional climates show different behaviors according to the degree of global warming rather than the type of SSP scenario. Climate shifts are intensified under a higher level of global warming that is above the PI levels. The largest climate shifts in this region are shown under global warming of 5.0°C based on the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, especially in current polar climate zones. Future change patterns in individual climate zone can differ. Regions with tropical climates and arid climates are likely to be expanded, whereas some regions with warm temperate climates, cold climates, and polar climates are likely to shrink under global warming conditions. Therefore, this study supports the necessity of mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and establishing an adaptation plan for future global warming conditions.

Keywords

• climate shifts
• climate zone
• global warming
• CMIP6
• SSPs
• Asia