Solved and Problematic Issues of Influenza epidemiology one hundred years after Spanish Flu Pandemic

Abstract

The history of influenza pandemics of the 20th century and the 2009 pandemic is analyzed, as well as the stages of parallel development of the influenza doctrine. Hypotheses and theoretical aspects explaining the mechanisms of formation of seasonal epidemics and pandemics are considered. Zooanthroponosis locates the Genesis of pandemic influenza type A and type anthropogenic the essence of seasonal drift epidemics of influenza of all types. Taking into account the diversity of opinions of experts, it is proposed to return to the discussion of controversial epidemiological and virological issues officially recognized by WHO in 2009 of the pandemic to develop a unified concept of pandemic influenza on the basis of multi-level variability of the pathogens. We discuss the possibility of improving the prediction of epidemiological (epizoonotic) influenza situation by complex monitoring of the predictors of pandemics (epidemics, epizoonotics) in the hog production regions laboratories, epidemiological and veterinary profile. It is assumed that the probable causative agent of the next pandemic will be influenza virus of serasubtype A (Н2N2).

Keywords

• flu, spanish flu, swine flu
• pandemic history
• flu virus variability
• pandemic prediction