Performance of discrete wavelet transform‐based method in the detection of influenza outbreaks in Iran: An ecological study

Abstract

Abstract Background and Aim Timely detection of outbreaks is one of the main purposes of the health surveillance system. The presence of appropriate methods in the detection of outbreaks can have an important role in the timely detection of outbreaks. Because of the importance of this issue, this study aimed to assess the performance of discrete wavelet transform (DWT) based methods in detecting influenza outbreaks in Iran from January 2010 to January 2020. Methods All registered influenza‐positive virus cases in Iran from January 2010 to January 2010 were obtained from the FluNet web base tool, the World Health Organization website. The combination method that includes DWT and Shewhart control chart was used in this study. All analyses were performed using MATLAB software version 2018a Stata software version 15. Results The Mean ± SD and median of reported influenza cases from January 2010 to January 2020 was 36 ± 108 and four cases per week. The combination of the DWT and Shewhart control chart with K = 0.25 had the most sensitivity. The most specificity in the detection of nonoutbreak days was seen in the combination of DWT and Shewhart control chart with K = 1.5, K = 1.75, and K = 2, respectively. The combination of DWT and Shewhart control chart with K = 0.5 had the best performance in the detection of outbreaks (sensitivity = 0.64, specificity: 0.90, Youden index: 0.54, and area under the curve [AUC]: 0.77). Conclusion The DWT‐based method in detecting influenza outbreaks has acceptable performance, but it is recommended that this method's performance be assessed in detecting outbreaks of other infectious diseases.

Keywords

• DWT
• influenza
• Iran
• outbreaks
• performance