Impact of Assimilating Ground-Based Microwave Radiometer Data on the Precipitation Bifurcation Forecast: A Case Study in Beijing

Abstract

In this study, the temperature and relative humidity profiles retrieved from five ground-based microwave radiometers in Beijing were assimilated into the rapid-refresh multi-scale analysis and prediction system-short term (RMAPS-ST). The precipitation bifurcation prediction that occurred in Beijing on 4 May 2019 was selected as a case to evaluate the impact of their assimilation. For this purpose, two experiments were set. The Control experiment only assimilated conventional observations and radar data, while the microwave radiometers profilers (MWRPS) experiment assimilated conventional observations, the ground-based microwave radiometer profiles and radar data into the RMAPS-ST model. The results show that in comparison with the Control test, the MWRPS test made reasonable adjustments for the thermal conditions in time, better reproducing the weak heat island phenomenon in the observation prior to the rainfall. Thus, assimilating MWRPS improved the skills of the precipitation forecast in both the distribution and the intensity of rainfall precipitation, capable of predicting the process of belt-shaped radar echo splitting and the precipitation bifurcation in the urban area of Beijing. The assimilation of the ground-based microwave radiometer profiles improved the skills of the quantitative precipitation forecast to a certain extent. Among multiple cycle experiments, the onset of 0600 UTC cycle closest to the beginning of rainfall performed best by assimilating the ground-based microwave radiometer profiles.

Keywords

• ground-based microwave radiometer
• weak heat island effect
• the precipitation bifurcation