Diversity and resilience of the Cuban economy. Commercial portfolio analysis based on the HHI and LKI

Abstract

This empirical article analyzes the commercial exchange portfolio of the Cuban economy by studying the data on Cuban foreign trade activities. It combines measures from the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) and the Lauraéus-Kaivo-oja Index (LKI) to identify key changes and trends in the export and import patterns of trade relationships at the country level. The article shows the results and key findings of the index-based analyses, as well as the export and import structures of the Cuban economy and trade. Especially this type of analysis provides a good knowledge base for smart specialization strategies of the Cuban economy. The results indicate that export-driven strategies need re-assessment from a resilience perspective. A more diversified export portfolio would be a smarter solution than the current export portfolio concentration rate. In the case of the import strategy, a re-assessment is not needed because Cuba's import portfolio is already highly diversified.

Keywords

• resilience
• smart specialization strategy
• export
• import
• concentration
• portfolio
• diversification
• herfindahl hirschman index
• lauréaus-kaivo-oja index.