Spatiotemporal Analyses of 2 Co-Circulating SARS-CoV-2 Variants, New York State, USA

Abstract

The emergence of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants in late 2020 and early 2021 raised alarm worldwide because of their potential for increased transmissibility and immune evasion. Elucidating the evolutionary and epidemiologic dynamics among novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is essential for understanding the trajectory of the coronavirus disease pandemic. We describe the interplay between B.1.1.7 (Alpha) and B.1.526 (Iota) variants in New York State, USA, during December 2020–April 2021 through phylogeographic analyses, space-time scan statistics, and cartographic visualization. Our results indicate that B.1.526 probably evolved in New York City, where it was displaced as the dominant lineage by B.1.1.7 months after its initial appearance. In contrast, B.1.1.7 became dominant earlier in regions with fewer B.1.526 infections. These results suggest that B.1.526 might have delayed the initial spread of B.1.1.7 in New York City. Our combined spatiotemporal methodologies can help disentangle the complexities of shifting SARS-CoV-2 variant landscapes.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• coronavirus disease
• SARS-CoV-2
• severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2
• viruses
• respiratory infections