Unprecedented heavy rainfall event over Yamunanagar, India during 14 July 2016: An observational and modelling study

Abstract

Abstract Extreme rainfall events have posed several serious threats to many populated and urbanized areas in the world including the Indian subcontinent. Therefore, accurate predictions of their intensity and areas of influence are important for flood‐prone risk assessments. On 14 July 2016, heavy to exceptionally heavy rainfall occurred in Yamunanagar (30.16° N, 77.29° E), located in the state of Haryana in North India, which led to widespread disruption of communication, electricity, inundation of houses, and so forth. The present paper aims at examining observational, synoptic, thermo‐dynamical, and numerical features associated with this devastating rainfall episode. The analysis found that during extreme rainfall episodes, a trough in mid‐tropospheric westerlies and a strong low‐level atmospheric monsoonal flow seem to have strongly interacted with each other, creating a strong convergence zone near study areas that led to a severe rainstorm. The quasi‐stationary supercells were also noticed due to continuous moisture incursions from the Bay of Bengal and orographic uplift over the Himalayas near Yamunanagar. A deep layer of wind shear interacts dynamically with the convergence zone and leads to a potential rainstorm. Thermodynamic indices indicate high instability over the heavy rainfall area. The dynamics of this event were studied in detail by using three‐dimensional variational data assimilation within the weather research and forecasting model, configured with triple two‐way nesting domains (27, 9, and 3 km). The model results show that the weather research and forecasting model satisfactorily captures the quantitative precipitation (300 mm) in 24 h over the Yamunanagar region as compared with observation (365 mm).

Keywords

• climate change impacts
• extreme rainfall
• extremes
• forecasting
• hazards
• mesoscale convective system