Reliability Assessment of Power Systems in High-Load Areas with High Proportion of Gas-Fired Units Considering Natural Gas Loss

Abstract

The “dual-carbon” policy underscores the crucial importance of a secure and stable natural gas supply to ensure the reliable operation of power systems. In high-load areas with a high proportion of gas-fired units and no alternative energy supply, urgent attention needs to be paid to the impact of natural gas loss on power system reliability. Given this background, a method to evaluate power system reliability that considers natural gas supply fluctuations is proposed. In this method, a reliability model of the natural gas supply chain based on the minimal cut set theory is constructed and the influence of policy regulations and economic market factors on system components is quantified. Then, a reliability-evaluation model for a power system that considers gas loss is constructed, and a non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to solve it. Afterward, a reliability-evaluation method considering the power system reserve capacity is proposed. Finally, case studies on a natural gas system with a 14-node power system of a certain area are performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the simulation results demonstrate that the reliability of the energy supply directly affects the reliability of the power system.

Keywords

• natural gas supply chain
• power system
• minimal cut set theory
• non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation
• reliability assessment