On the foreshock cascade and extraordinary predictions, in relevance to the article by A.I. Malyshev and L.K. Malysheva “Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region”

Abstract

Not so many issues, that have such a divergence of view, as on the existence and nature of foreshock activation. The range here is from public admission, that the previously described effect of foreshock avalanche-like activation is nothing more than the result of (though unconscious) data fitting, to the cases of incredibly accurate predictions of the time of strong earthquakes (though retrospective). The article by A.I. Malyshev and L.K. Malysheva, published in the current issue, gave a reason to return to these disagreements again and to offer a possible explanation for them.

Keywords

• method of the self-developing processes
• aссеlеrаtеd seismic moment release (amr)
• foreshock cascade
• random and systematic components of a seismic regime