Survival analysis: a tool in the study of post-harvest diseases in peaches

Abstract

Survival analysis is applied when the time until the occurrence of an event is of interest. Such data are routinely collected in plant diseases, although applications of the method are uncommon. The objective of this study was to use two studies on post-harvest diseases of peaches, considering two harvests together and the existence of random effect shared by fruits of a same tree, in order to describe the main techniques in survival analysis. The nonparametric Kaplan-Meier method, the log-rank test and the semi-parametric Cox's proportional hazards model were used to estimate the effect of cultivars and the number of days after full bloom on the survival to the brown rot symptom and the instantaneous risk of expressing it in two consecutive harvests. The joint analysis with baseline effect, varying between harvests, and the confirmation of the tree effect as a grouping factor with random effect were appropriate to interpret the phenomenon (disease) evaluated and can be important tools to replace or complement the conventional analysis, respecting the nature of the variable and the phenomenon.

Keywords

• tempo-ocorrência
• Kaplan-Meier
• regressão de Cox
• pêssego