Assessing the impact of water scarcity on thermoelectric and hydroelectric potential and electricity price under climate change: Implications for future energy management

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of water resource restrictions on thermoelectric and hydroelectric stations, analyzing its influence on demand and electricity prices. It uses General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) to forecast future temperature trends and estimate river flow patterns. The research provides insights into climate change's potential effects on water resources and electricity potential. The study shows a significant decrease in river flow, indicating potential issues with hydroelectric and thermoelectric systems. The study also uses an optimized Echo State Network (ESN) for accurate electricity demand, using the Modified Snow Leopard Optimization (MSLO) algorithm as a new metaheuristic model. The simulation results show a consistent increase in electricity demand scenarios, which is expected to lead to higher supply prices due to decreased production capacity. This could have significant economic effects. The investigation provides a comprehensive understanding of water resource management challenges in power production, aiding in informed decisions in the future energy industry.

Keywords

• Water resource limitations
• Hydroelectric
• Thermoelectric
• General circulation models
• Echo state network
• Modified snow leopard optimization algorithm