Improving Significant Wave Height Forecasts Using a Joint Empirical Mode Decomposition–Long Short-Term Memory Network

Abstract

Wave forecasts, though integral to ocean engineering activities, are often conducted using computationally expensive and time-consuming numerical models with accuracies that are blunted by numerical-model-inherent limitations. Additionally, artificial neural networks, though significantly computationally cheaper, faster, and effective, also experience difficulties with nonlinearities in the wave generation and evolution processes. To solve both problems, this study employs and couples empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and a long short-term memory (LSTM) network in a joint model for significant wave height forecasting, a method widely used in wind speed forecasting, but not yet for wave heights. Following a comparative analysis, the results demonstrate that EMD-LSTM significantly outperforms LSTM at every forecast horizon (3, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72 h), considerably improving forecasting accuracy, especially for forecasts exceeding 24 h. Additionally, EMD-LSTM responds faster than LSTM to large waves. An error analysis comparing LSTM and EMD-LSTM demonstrates that LSTM errors are more systematic. This study also identifies that LSTM is not able to adequately predict high-frequency significant wave height intrinsic mode functions, which leaves room for further improvements.

Keywords

• significant wave heights
• wave forecasting
• empirical mode decomposition
• long short-term memory network
• EMD-LSTM