Detection of annual and seasonal temperature variability and change using non-parametric test- A case study of Bundelkhand region of central India

Abstract

Consequences of global warming and climate change are major threat to humans and their socio-economic activities. Agriculture of Bundelkhand region is supposed to be more vulnerable due to emerging scenario of climate change and poor socio-economic status of farming community. Many studies carried out elsewhere have shown evidence of regional temperature variability along with global climate changes. This study focuses on the temporal variability and trend in annual and seasonal temperature (1901-2012) at six locations of Bundelkhand region. The results of the analysis reveal that the annual maximum (TMax) and minimum (TMin) temperature has significantly increasing trend in all the locations in the range of 0.5 to 2.0oC 100 year-1 and 0.5 to 1.1 oC 100 year-1, respectively. Seasonal analysis revealed warming trend in both TMax (0.6-2.6oC100 year-1) and TMin (0.9 to 2.3 oC 100 year-1) during post-monsoon and winter season in all the locations. Majority of the locations showed cooling trend (0.3-1.0 oC 100 year-1), in the mean maximum and minimum temperature during monsoon season except at two locations i.e Jhansi and Banda. However, a significant positive trends (2.9 oC) in the TMin was found for the period of hundred years at Banda district during monsoon season.

Keywords

• Climate change
• climate variability
• mann-kendall test
• temperature,
• trends