Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis for the human melioidosis model

Abstract

In this work, we formulated and investigated an optimal control problem of the melioidosis epidemic to explain the effectiveness of time-dependent control functions in controlling the spread of the epidemic. The basic reproduction number (R0c) with control measures is obtained, using the next-generation matrix approach and the impact of the controls on R0c is illustrated numerically. The optimal control problem is analyzed using Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive the optimality system. The optimality system is simulated using the forward-backward sweep method based on the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method in the MATLAB program to illustrate the impact of all the possible combinations of the control interventions on the transmission dynamics of the disease. The numerical results indicate that among strategies considered, strategy C is shown to be the most effective in reducing the number of infectious classes compared to both strategy A and strategy B. Furthermore, we carried out a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the most cost-effective strategy and the result indicated that the strategy B (treatment control strategy) should be recommended to mitigate the spread and impact of the disease regarding the costs of the strategies.

Keywords

• Melioidosis
• Burkholderia pseudomallei
• Optimal control
• Numerical simulation
• Cost-effectiveness